The U. S stock market has been on fire these past few weeks even after the results of the Brexit and the continuation of the slow growth seen in the global markets. While it was great for all investors who had their investment in the stock market, from a contrarian point of view, the recent rise in the stock market was concerning. Every investors’ goal should be to make money in the stock market. That is why we invest in the first place, but is now the right now to jump into U.S stock market? This article will provide justification and rationale on why average investor should not buy into the market at these levels.
First, we look at the growth rate of companies within the U.S. Below showed the U.S GDP Growth Rate for the past 10 years according to Trading Economics.
What this showed was that the growth of the U.S has been steady at around 6% to -2% growth rate for the past 6 years. The only time the U.S growth rate was below -2% was in 2009. While many great financial gurus out there preach that you cannot time the stock market, Warren Buffett has said repeatedly that an investor should not be jumping into the stock market unless it looks attractive. He said, “the stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything – you can wait for your pitch”. At current market levels, the S&P500(SPY) is positive 4.21% since beginning of the year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is positive 4.14% for the year. Plain and simple, this is not a buyer market, it’s a seller market. Now sure, there are bargain out there such as Wells Fargo (WFC), Warren Buffett’s favorite holding, but we do not know the true impact of Brexit will have on Wells Fargo profitability and operation. It’s selling at a discount for a reason. Now, long term investor can look at this as an investment opportunity and look to buy Wells Fargo. But for average investor who do not have time follow each individual companies and want to invest safely in an U.S stock market index fund, the yearly performance and the U.S recent growth rate trend showed that now is not a time to buy. In hindsight, the time to buy was during 2008 when GPD dropped to -6% but many investor did not see that during that time. What we can do is to be at least better educated and prepared for when the next opportunity is presented to us.